| 5 Steps to a Successful Season - Part 1 |
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| Written by Chip Crain |
| Tuesday, 01 September 2009 20:36 |
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It's hard to believe that this month the Grizzlies will be meeting as a team again to practice and prepare for the upcoming 2009-10 season. In fact that countdown is now at 26 days. Every year about this time I start to get the tingle of hope and dread. Hope for the new set of players fit together like pieces of a puzzle and create a magnificent tapestry of beauty and dread that the pieces of the puzzle won't fit together at all leaving a bunch of individual pieces that form no cohesive picture at all. What do people see happening this year? Well within Shelby County people expect some more than modest improvement. Talk of 35-40 wins and just missing out on the playoffs are discussed openly on the Grizzlies message board. Outside of the Memphis Grizzlies core fan base things appear much bleaker. A survey of fellow bloggers predict the Grizzlies will end the season with the 3rd worst record in the NBA with only 23 wins. ÂSo who what has to happen to reach 40 wins and what has to go wrong to only reach 23? I am going to explore each side with the 5 most important things that have to happen to reach these respective numbers. The Favorable Outcome: Point #1 For the Grizzlies to reach 40 wins some things unknown now have to occur and people need to realize just how extraordinary it would be for that to happen. First, to simply go from 24 wins to 40 would be an increase of 16 wins. Now 16 doesn't sound like a big number but that would be a 66% increase from last season. Increasing anything 66% is pretty difficult. Portland went from 21 wins to 32 wins to 41 wins between the 2005-06 season and the 2007-08 season. Memphis fans are hoping for a for something greater than that despite using the same style of advancement. Portland's youth movement began with the trade of Rasheed Wallace to Atlanta (and subsequent trade to Detroit). When Portland jettisoned their veteran core and started to rebuild with youth they made some very shrew deals as well. Trading Randy Foye for Brandon Roy and Tyrus Thomas for LeMarcus Aldridge gave the Blazers a big jump start in their rebuilding efforts. Roy turned into the rookie of the year and Aldridge has been light years ahead of Thomas in terms of development. In fact, it was his development as much as Roy's unhappiness with Zach Randolph that hastened his exodus from Portland. Randolph was the last vestige of the Jail Blazers teams and his departure allowed new coach Nate McMillian to start with a clean slate of players. Memphis' youth movement began after the Pau Gasol trade. Some people point to the Shane Battier for Rudy Gay trade as the true starting point but that was more of a move while remaining a veteran team more than a total reshaping of the team. The Grizzlies first draft after the trade resulted in losing Mike Miller and Brian Cardinal plus draft pick Kevin Love to acquire O J Mayo. Whether or not that move turns out to be as intelligent as the Portland deals has yet to be determined but the immediate response has been positive. The Grizzlies also traded Dante Green for Darrell Arthur. While Arthur struggled somewhat in the starting role last season he definitely looked better than Green last year. So in following the Blazers model the team made two draft night trades that produced two starters and allowed the Grizzlies to release the last holdout from the playoff teams in Hakim Warrick. While the moves did provide hope for the Blazers immediately the Grizzlies have yet to see that quick improvement in wins. POrtland improved 11 games the first season Roy and Aldridge were on the team. Memphis saw a more tepid two game improvement. Portland followed up that year with another 10 game improvement. For Memphis to match that pace 34 wins should be the goal. To reach 40 wins would be a larger improvement than should be expected. It could happen but it's more likely that a slower development will occur.   |
Comments
I am still not sold on Conley, but hopefully he will make me a believer. He showed flashes of ability to hold down the fort at the end of the season.
Randolph is going to destroy that young talented nucleus in memphis... he's a cancer.
That's what I get for writing too early in the morning!
I will correct the errors and thank you for mentioning them.
And it was only 41 games that season not 42 but I didn't expect that would be pointed out.
The point was that the Grizzlies are trying to emulate the Blazer model of rebuilding with young players and grow slowly and steadily. No team has rebuilt as quickly or efficiently as the Blazers did between 2005-6 and today and that is without the top pick in the draft contributing that much.