| Shopping Season: When to Buy? |
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| Written by Chip Crain |
| Sunday, 07 February 2010 13:28 |
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I am so tired of people screaming bloody murder about the need for the Grizzlies to do something fast in regards to beefing up their bench. The reality is that missing the playoffs might actually work out best in the long run for the Grizzlies anyway. Sure the fans want to see the Grizzlies win a playoff game but they aren't going to advance this season. Wouldn't it make more sense to acquire another lottery pick and then next season be in a stronger position to get past the first round of the playoffs? There are plenty of top quality players available in the draft. Memphis picking in the top 14 would be guaranteed a player who can step in right away and help score or defend off the bench. Carroll, Young and Thabeet will be a year older and Arthur will as well and he should be healthy too. The team will be a top contender next season - all season - without making a go for broke deal that sacrifices the future well-being of the team. When people start getting desperate for a deal - any deal as soon as possible - they lose objectivity. That's when mistakes are made. You start focusing on the trees and miss the forest. The same people wanting a deal as quick as possible are the first people who will line up to criticize the team for making a bad deal. Any deal worth making can wait until All-Star weekend when teams really start to get serious with the deadline looming. That's when the teams over the luxury tax start actually calculating how much money they are going to lose and start getting desperate to reduce payrolls now matter the long term effect on the team. When people start to realize a dollar for dollar penalty tax on their team means big money with no guarantee to reach much less advance in the playoffs people will make deals. Currently there are 15 teams with payrolls above $70 million. Only 16 teams make the playoffs and Charlotte, Atlanta, Oklahoma City, Portland and Memphis are all well below that mark. Some team is going to pay a hefty penalty in real dollars and not make the playoffs this year. And more than a few teams are starting too realize it could be them. All-Star weekend there are going to be a lot of feelers going out with teams testing the waters about unloading a big salary to avoid a bigger penalty tax. That's when Chris Wallace and the Grizzlies want to strike, when the other guys are desperate. Then the Grizzlies can negotiate the best possible deal for the future of the team. After all the Grizzlies don't need a deal. The other teams do. All the Grizzlies need to do is be patient and search for the best value. That goes for the front office as well as the fans. So the next time you ask yourself why the Grizzlies haven't made a move to strengthen the bench stop yourself and think, when is the best time to buy? A few weeks before Christmas or Christmas Eve. I warrant the best values are on sale Christmas Eve by the way. |
Comments
There are plenty of top quality players available in the draft. Memphis picking in the top 14 would be guaranteed a player who can step in right away and help score or defend off the bench. Carroll, Young and Thabeet will be a year older and Arthur will as well and he should be healthy too. The team will be a top contender next season - all season - without making a go for broke deal that sacrifices the future well-being of the team. "
Quoted for truth. This season has already been beyond expectations so far. Both in how bad they have been when they are bad (very bad) and how good they've been when they are good (top 5 NBA team for a 4-6 week span IMO).
There are plus sides to making the playoffs or not. The bench needs depth and missing the playoffs would help. Making the playoffs however, would help the starters gain experience in "how to make a run for the playoffs". Either way, this season can be seen as a good building block for next season, and the season after. The experience Conley, Mayo, Gay and Gasol have gained is invaluable. I agree patience and perspective are needed. Don't mortgage away the future for a measly playoff win or two unless it's a deal that makes sense and is too good to say no to.
Rudy Gay is not going to be on the Memphis roster next year. Bottom line. LeBron, Wade, and Bosh are off the market to probably three different teams. At that point, whichever teams did not sign them- New Jersey, Chicago, Cleveland, New York, Minnesota, Miami, or one of the other teams that are pushing all their chips for the 2010 FA extravaganza- are going to be desperate to save face and at least sign players to try to rebuild their franchise.
And thus Rudy will be gone. A team will overpay for him because he is young and athletic and can put 20 up any given night. He is exciting and if a Miami or Cleveland lose their star, they will be in dire straits.
Our only hope is that the new CBA really does change the management style of teams this summer, and players are forced to take paycuts. Otherwise, some team will panic and send Rudy a ridiculous contract and either we will match it (and lose either Marc, OJ, or Zbo in the longrun) or watch him walk away (the smart choice).
So in my opinion, it would be nice to swap a late 20's first round pick for CDR or Ronnie Brewer who would give us a hand off the bench. BUT, its more important to swing a real deal for a Rudy-replacemen t(s), particularly some 3-point shooting and some better guard play.
Our team's success is based on the interior (Zbo and Marc), so if we could get some complimentary 3 point efficiency and some young, aggressive depth at the PG position we could still be a very competitive team and have a chance to attack some of the beat up/ aging Western Conference powers.
There are a lot of long, athletic swingmen in the NBA Rudy is a good one, he's a good guy and he's been great for the Grizz. But making him our franchise player is outrageous and simply embarrassing. The NBA will continue to laugh at us and we will continue to hang around the 8,9,10 spot in the West.
Pick up some strong roll players, some consistent 3-point threats, and let OJ run our offense and we can do some damage.
To say that we couldn't beat those teams in a 7 game series is (other than LA) is just reactionary. We were world beaters 2 weeks ago now we couldn't beat dallas in a 7 game series with Brewer?
I hole heartedly disagree with the premise of this article. I think the draft is a crap shoot even if we got the #3 pick it's a gamble. Were locked into a 4-5 million dollar a year contract for 4 years and we don't know if they will pan out.
The playoff experience for this young team is a guaranteed benefit. And that is Reality People.
Second, people who see this team ready to tackle more experienced teams in the playoffs have to face reality. There is no bench capable of providing consistent minutes. In a 7 games series teams have to be able to reach past first and second options to create opportunities. The Grizzlies starting five doesn't have the experience yet to win those battles. Already people are starting to catch on to what the Grizzlies first option is and are taking that away.
Finally, there is a serious problem coming next summer with the CBA. Rudy would be wise to sign a contract this summer and not risk losing out even bigger next summer. I wouldn't write him off the roster just yet.
Given the logic that this team isn't made to win against the top teams in the West and that missing the playoffs is best, well then, why not just go ahead and tank the rest of this season to ensure a top 10 draft pick? You're saying it's better for this team to try and fail. Isn't that supporing the idea that this team might as well try to fail as well?
The lottery is for losers. If you want to play play for lottery ping pong balls. play Power-Ball. Imo, working harder and smarter is the formula for success; not luck.
But, that's just me.
El Lobo losing is what Grizzlies in this position in the first place. Without the lottery, would there be OJ Mayo on the roster? No one is going to gift Heisley, Wallace and co young talented players through trade for nothing. 4 of the 5 starters can to attributed to "rebuilding" which is NBA code for losing now, winning later. Z-Bo was acquired through trade but he was older and damaged goods. The Durants, the Wades.. even the Arizas.. no one is trading those players away unless you give something big in return. Which means you break even instead of gaining anything.
I don't think Chip was overreacting to the losing streak. Even during the best parts of the season there have been patterns with this team. Patterns that will hurt them against experienced teams in the playoffs.
1 - Bench.
2 - Offense dry spells and lost leads. When the defense clogs the paint and the offense dries up. And the confidence drops, the Grizzlies struggle and the team play evaporates.
3 - IMO the Grizzlies are an offense orientated team that is best against teams that don't defend. The Suns and Warriors etc. When the shots are falling and the offense is in rhythm, the whole level of play (hustle, defense) improves and Grizzlies are tough to beat. When the game is grind it out defense game (Bobcats or Rockets style), Grizzlies suffer. Playoff basketball is very defense orientated.
4 - Inexperience. Some of the big wins have came against playoff teams this year. But winning a regular season game and winning playoff games are two different things. The years the Grizz were swept, they beat those teams in the regular season. Grizz have been a good team for 2-3 months. Still a long way to go to being a "top NBA team". Patience.
The main point.. no one is saying don't aim to make the playoffs. You can bet your ass they will be trying to make it. The point is don't sell your future away (the most important thing), for short term gain. Being a competitive team in the next 5+ years is more important then making the playoffs this season.
Also, one could argue that the draft is precisely the wrong way to go with this Griz team. Yes, we could get lucky and get next year's Evans or Jennings. But it will simply be that: LUCK. So even if we make a safe pick to minimize the potential of drafting a project/bust like Thabeet, the far more likely scenario is drafting a player like Arthur or Carroll... guys that will probably turn out OK but are in NO WAY ready to contribute to a playoff run as rookies. Which is what next year's team will need.
With the age and experience of the current roster, the Griz would be better served turning both of the later picks (and/or Carroll) into proven assests with 2-5 years of experience and a definable skill-set that fills a current need (e.g. 3-point specialist, lockdown defender); even if you know they will never be more than rotation guys.
While I do not think we need to do anything crazy like add a max veteran on fumes (e.g. Shaq, K.G., etc...) or rent an expiring superstar, the fact remains that this team does not need to get any younger if it wants to make a serious playoff run (this year OR next).
The point of the blog was to make sure the Grizzlies don't rush out and get a player like a CDR who is simply not going to make a difference on this team and give up future assets to acquire him. There is no reason to rush into a deal yet. The Grizzlies are one of the few teams with cap space ,with a young team on the move up in the standings (despite losing some games lately) and the potential to improve next season without having to make any changes. The Grizzlies are buyers in a seller's market. Enjoy the experience and get the best deal possible not just any deal to appease some fans who likely won't be content with any move made anyway.